Intergenerational Mobility in China — A Dynamically Comparative Analysis in Perspective of Multidimensions

Abstract

China’s attainment of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects has shifted the focus towards achieving common prosperity as the primary goal of its economic and social development in the upcoming phase. However, challenges such as inequality, social class stratification, and relative poverty hinder the advancement toward common prosperity. Intergenerational mobility emerges as a pivotal issue, strongly linked to inequality dynamics and the persistence of poverty. Enhancing intergenerational mobility and fostering unhindered upward mobility pathways are imperative to mitigate inequality and break the cycle of intergenerational poverty transmission, thereby invigorating social development—a critical endeavor for promoting common prosperity. Despite existing research efforts, which predominantly examine intergenerational mobility from a singular perspective, there remains a dearth of comprehensive multidimensional analysis, limiting an accurate depiction of China’s intergenerational mobility landscape.

This study leverages data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to scrutinize intergenerational mobility across diverse dimensions encompassing education, occupation, and social status. Employing dynamic analysis and the Gelbach regression decomposition method, we explore the interplay among these dimensions and identify influential factors shaping intergenerational mobility. Our findings underscore that educational intergenerational mobility trails occupational mobility, with a notable interplay observed between the two dimensions. Education significantly influences over 50% of intergenerational occupational mobility, while parental occupation status contributes 11% to educational intergenerational mobility. Notably, mother-offspring mobility lags behind father-offspring mobility, albeit being more susceptible to external factors. Social status intergenerational mobility witnessed a marked decline from 2010 to 2018, influenced by occupational choices. Parent-daughter mobility lags behind parent-son mobility, with rural mobility trailing urban mobility until a reversal in 2018. The overall relationship between intergenerational mobility and age exhibits a U-shaped pattern, with individuals born in the 1970s experiencing the lowest intergenerational mobility.

This paper extends existing literature in two primary dimensions. First, it employs a simultaneous equation model to integrate diverse dimensions of intergenerational mobility, facilitating a comprehensive and dynamic comparative analysis, offering insights into the current state of intergenerational mobility in China. Second, it employs the Gelbach regression decomposition method to dissect intergenerational mobility across years and dimensions, shedding light on interaction effects and exploring potential regional disparities.

The multidimensional dynamic analysis of intergenerational mobility in China provides a thorough evaluation of its current state, delving into the heart of intergenerational class stratification and revealing underlying mechanisms. This nuanced understanding can inform targeted policy formulation to bolster intergenerational mobility, thus contributing significantly to the pursuit of common prosperity.